This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (e.g., RCP and 538) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.
State | Democrat | Dem % | Republican | GOP % | Lead | End date |
Alabama | Harris | 32% | Trump | 60% | Trump +28 | Apr 21 |
Alaska | Harris | 42% | Trump | 47% | Trump +5 | Sep 12 |
Arizona | Harris | 47% | Trump | 48% | Trump +1 | Sep 08 |
Arkansas | Harris | 40% | Trump | 55% | Trump +15 | Sep 06 |
California | Harris | 60% | Trump | 36% | Harris +24 | Sep 05 |
Colorado | Harris | 55% | Trump | 40% | Harris +15 | Sep 08 |
Connecticut | Harris | 55% | Trump | 38% | Harris +17 | Apr 21 |
D.C. | Harris | 93% | Trump | 6% | Harris +87 | Jan 01 |
Delaware | Harris | 51% | Trump | 40% | Harris +11 | Apr 21 |
Florida | Harris | 46% | Trump | 50% | Trump +4 | Sep 05 |
Georgia | Harris | 46% | Trump | 48% | Trump +2 | Sep 08 |
Hawaii | Harris | 55% | Trump | 33% | Harris +22 | Apr 21 |
Idaho | Harris | 30% | Trump | 62% | Trump +32 | Apr 21 |
Illinois | Harris | 58% | Trump | 42% | Harris +16 | Aug 29 |
Indiana | Harris | 43% | Trump | 47% | Trump +4 | Apr 21 |
Iowa | Harris | 43% | Trump | 47% | Trump +4 | Sep 11 |
Kansas | Harris | 44% | Trump | 49% | Trump +5 | Apr 21 |
Kentucky | Harris | 35% | Trump | 60% | Trump +25 | Apr 21 |
Louisiana | Harris | 33% | Trump | 48% | Trump +15 | Apr 26 |
Maine | Harris | 55% | Trump | 38% | Harris +17 | Aug 19 |
Maryland | Harris | 62% | Trump | 34% | Harris +28 | Sep 08 |
Massachusetts | Harris | 47% | Trump | 29% | Harris +18 | Jul 18 |
Michigan | Harris | 48% | Trump | 49% | Trump +1 | Sep 12 |
Minnesota | Harris | 50% | Trump | 45% | Harris +5 | Sep 08 |
Mississippi | Harris | 42% | Trump | 51% | Trump +9 | Apr 21 |
Missouri | Harris | 41% | Trump | 57% | Trump +16 | Aug 16 |
Montana | Harris | 41% | Trump | 56% | Trump +15 | Aug 29 |
Nebraska | Harris | 37% | Trump | 54% | Trump +17 | Aug 27 |
Nevada | Harris | 48% | Trump | 47% | Harris +1 | Sep 08 |
New Hampshire | Harris | 51% | Trump | 43% | Harris +8 | Sep 12 |
New Jersey | Harris | 51% | Trump | 42% | Harris +9 | Apr 21 |
New Mexico | Harris | 49% | Trump | 39% | Harris +10 | Sep 13 |
New York | Harris | 58% | Trump | 42% | Harris +16 | Aug 21 |
North Carolina | Harris | 49% | Trump | 47% | Harris +2 | Sep 08 |
North Dakota | Harris | 37% | Trump | 55% | Trump +18 | Apr 21 |
Ohio | Harris | 44% | Trump | 53% | Trump +9 | Sep 05 |
Oklahoma | Harris | 40% | Trump | 56% | Trump +16 | Aug 30 |
Oregon | Harris | 51% | Trump | 39% | Harris +12 | Apr 21 |
Pennsylvania | Harris | 49% | Trump | 46% | Harris +3 | Sep 15 |
Rhode Island | Harris | 40% | Trump | 33% | Harris +7 | Jun 14 |
South Carolina | Harris | 40% | Trump | 52% | Trump +12 | Apr 21 |
South Dakota | Harris | 31% | Trump | 50% | Trump +19 | May 13 |
Tennessee | Harris | 37% | Trump | 63% | Trump +26 | Aug 29 |
Texas | Harris | 45% | Trump | 51% | Trump +6 | Sep 05 |
Utah | Harris | 28% | Trump | 60% | Trump +32 | Aug 09 |
Vermont | Harris | 70% | Trump | 29% | Harris +41 | Aug 19 |
Virginia | Harris | 50% | Trump | 40% | Harris +10 | Sep 08 |
Washington | Harris | 53% | Trump | 32% | Harris +21 | Sep 06 |
West Virginia | Harris | 34% | Trump | 61% | Trump +27 | Aug 27 |
Wisconsin | Harris | 49% | Trump | 47% | Harris +2 | Sep 12 |
Wyoming | Harris | 26% | Trump | 67% | Trump +41 | Apr 21 |