State Averages for President

This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (e.g., RCP and 538) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Harris 32% Trump 60% Trump +28 Apr 21
Alaska Harris 42% Trump 47% Trump +5 Sep 12
Arizona Harris 47% Trump 48% Trump +1 Sep 08
Arkansas Harris 40% Trump 55% Trump +15 Sep 06
California Harris 60% Trump 36% Harris +24 Sep 05
Colorado Harris 55% Trump 40% Harris +15 Sep 08
Connecticut Harris 55% Trump 38% Harris +17 Apr 21
D.C. Harris 93% Trump 6% Harris +87 Jan 01
Delaware Harris 51% Trump 40% Harris +11 Apr 21
Florida Harris 46% Trump 50% Trump +4 Sep 05
Georgia Harris 46% Trump 48% Trump +2 Sep 08
Hawaii Harris 55% Trump 33% Harris +22 Apr 21
Idaho Harris 30% Trump 62% Trump +32 Apr 21
Illinois Harris 58% Trump 42% Harris +16 Aug 29
Indiana Harris 43% Trump 47% Trump +4 Apr 21
Iowa Harris 43% Trump 47% Trump +4 Sep 11
Kansas Harris 44% Trump 49% Trump +5 Apr 21
Kentucky Harris 35% Trump 60% Trump +25 Apr 21
Louisiana Harris 33% Trump 48% Trump +15 Apr 26
Maine Harris 55% Trump 38% Harris +17 Aug 19
Maryland Harris 62% Trump 34% Harris +28 Sep 08
Massachusetts Harris 47% Trump 29% Harris +18 Jul 18
Michigan Harris 48% Trump 49% Trump +1 Sep 12
Minnesota Harris 50% Trump 45% Harris +5 Sep 08
Mississippi Harris 42% Trump 51% Trump +9 Apr 21
Missouri Harris 41% Trump 57% Trump +16 Aug 16
Montana Harris 41% Trump 56% Trump +15 Aug 29
Nebraska Harris 37% Trump 54% Trump +17 Aug 27
Nevada Harris 48% Trump 47% Harris +1 Sep 08
New Hampshire Harris 51% Trump 43% Harris +8 Sep 12
New Jersey Harris 51% Trump 42% Harris +9 Apr 21
New Mexico Harris 49% Trump 39% Harris +10 Sep 13
New York Harris 58% Trump 42% Harris +16 Aug 21
North Carolina Harris 49% Trump 47% Harris +2 Sep 08
North Dakota Harris 37% Trump 55% Trump +18 Apr 21
Ohio Harris 44% Trump 53% Trump +9 Sep 05
Oklahoma Harris 40% Trump 56% Trump +16 Aug 30
Oregon Harris 51% Trump 39% Harris +12 Apr 21
Pennsylvania Harris 49% Trump 46% Harris +3 Sep 15
Rhode Island Harris 40% Trump 33% Harris +7 Jun 14
South Carolina Harris 40% Trump 52% Trump +12 Apr 21
South Dakota Harris 31% Trump 50% Trump +19 May 13
Tennessee Harris 37% Trump 63% Trump +26 Aug 29
Texas Harris 45% Trump 51% Trump +6 Sep 05
Utah Harris 28% Trump 60% Trump +32 Aug 09
Vermont Harris 70% Trump 29% Harris +41 Aug 19
Virginia Harris 50% Trump 40% Harris +10 Sep 08
Washington Harris 53% Trump 32% Harris +21 Sep 06
West Virginia Harris 34% Trump 61% Trump +27 Aug 27
Wisconsin Harris 49% Trump 47% Harris +2 Sep 12
Wyoming Harris 26% Trump 67% Trump +41 Apr 21